Global industry collective decline, "diamond mines" can be immune from it?

With the spread of the global epidemic, the whole commodity has fallen sharply, and the "circuit breaker" of the stock indexes of various countries has become the "dessert before dinner". In this round of overall decline, only the iron ore price has been the strongest. Investigate its reason, from fundamentally, the demand side, the domestic outbreak occurs during the lunar New Year holiday, first reserve inventory of steel consumption in February, although around the steel mills start taking production, production measures, but in the blast furnace production will generally, steel inventory demand still exists, according to the world steel association statistics, in February 2020, China's crude steel output of 74.8 million tons, year-on-year increase of 5%. Supply side, according to China iron and steel mesh, as of February 28th, the 42 port stocks of 122 million tons, 144.08 million tons from the same period a year earlier, down 22.08 million tons, together with domestic outbreak, national monetary policy continuously, stabilize financial markets, reduce the influence of the outbreak, and have positive effects on black industry, ease steel capital, inventory pressure, promote ore market prices.

And in yesterday's iron ore futures panicky downward, after the morning low open near and far month contracts have fallen by the daily limit, among them, the market is relatively pessimistic about the iron ore far month contracts, the morning 07, 08, 09 contracts that hit the daily limit, near the end of the month 05 contracts fell by the daily limit. We around the market mentality interpretation main factors are as follows: 1, the outbreak of the impact of overseas demand for iron ore, affected by the epidemic, Japan and South Korea, Europe, southeast Asia announced steel mills have cut production, even now roughly two, will yield declines from 15% to 20% in the third quarter, this will lead to the late part of the iron ore supply may turn to the domestic, and the current outbreaks of iron ore production temporarily not obvious effect, so it is possible that the late iron ore into the tired period, far month pressure; 2, the late steel pressure, on the one hand, foreign outbreak hit the end demand for steel, construction, automobile manufacturing is shrinking, the other against the domestic steel inventory accumulation is higher, in the case of downstream has yet to fully recover production can quickly digest remains to be seen, and the country has set the tone this year no strong stimulation, inhibition property heat, it can form to steel consumption and suppression, high inventory and low consumption pressure on steel prices, then the current enterprise's fund pressure into consideration, the late steel industry exists the possibility of initiative to libraries, to iron ore and steel pressure conduction, the expectations of the market for iron ore especially far month expected pessimistic.

Yesterday, the iron ore spot market fell with the futures market, the whole market atmosphere is relatively pessimistic, merchants are less aggressive in quotation, wait-and-see, a single discussion, the price of various varieties of transaction appeared 20 yuan/ton about the decline. Affected by the high inventory of finished materials, steel mills are cautious in purchasing, mainly purchasing on demand. Shandong market transaction yesterday active, and tangshan, tianjin market transaction situation is relatively general. In addition, according to China united steel net on March 20, the 42 iron ore port stocks continued to decline to 119.21 million tons, the port of declining since February, dredging port volume is relatively high, with return to work in succession, the steel mills in cautious purchasing strategy, has certain inventory demand, iron ore demand fundamentals did not appear bad change.

According to statistics from China united iron and steel network, Australian iron ore shipments in january-february of 2020 were about 131 million tons, about 7 million tons less than the same period last year. In February, affected by the tropical cyclone, dampier port was closed for 90 hours, port hedland was closed for 25.5 hours, and port walcott was also closed. After that, the port also experienced berth maintenance. In march, with the improvement of the weather and the reduction of maintenance, the weekly iron ore shipment in Australia recovered to about 17 million tons as of March 19. In addition, according to the statistics of our website, the iron ore shipment of Brazil in January and February is about 44 million tons, down about 10 million tons year on year. Affected by the continuous rainstorm, especially from the end of February to the beginning of march, the Brazilian iron ore shipment decreased significantly, only about 3.27 million tons. After that, the weekly shipment rebounded somewhat, but only below 5 million tons fluctuated. Therefore, since the beginning of this year, the mine delivery resources have been relatively tight and the market expectation is strong, which is undoubtedly a great positive for the demand under the influence of the epidemic and there is a large space for expectation. Since march, with the resumption of mine shipments and the resumption of work in the downstream, the game between supply and demand has become more and more obvious. In particular, the global spread of the epidemic is difficult to stop. Under the influence of the pessimistic environment, the mine price has also dropped, which is also a rational correction.

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wuxi xinke metallurgical equipment CO.,LTD
Copyright©2019 wuxi xinke metallurgical equipment CO.,LTD. ALL RIGHT
苏ICP备12030577号