Steel demand is gradually released
Work on railway projects under construction has resumed at 77.8 percent, on roads and waterways at 68.2 percent with a total investment of more than 1 billion yuan, on civil aviation airport projects at 59.3 percent, on migrant workers in guangdong and zhejiang provinces returning to work at 70 percent, and on migrant workers in jiangsu province at about 60 percent. Recently, thanks to the strong promotion of many local governments, the rate of resumption of work has improved significantly, and the return of farmers to their posts in early April is expected to be basically completed.
With the gradual improvement of the covid-19 epidemic and the vigorous promotion of governments at all levels, the resumption of work and production across the country is now in full swing. Yang wenzhuang, director of the population and family department of the national health commission, said workers who travel by "point-to-point" buses or trains on their way home will no longer be quarantined as long as they have no symptoms within 14 days before their departure. That is to say, they can return to work, which will save 14 days of isolation time, thus further speeding up the resumption of work.
With the rate of return to work increased significantly corresponding to the resumption of work around the situation is also greatly improved. As of March 8, 162 of the 169 industrial enterprises above designated size in xiongan new area had resumed production, with the actual rate of resumption of production 95.9 percent. In Shanghai, 97% of industrial enterprises above the designated size have resumed work, and 100% of the wholesale markets of e-commerce, bulk commodities and agricultural products have resumed work. By March 7, 131 enterprises (construction sites) in the shenzhen-shantou cooperation zone had resumed work and production, with a resumption rate of over 97 percent. By March 3, Beijing had started 489 construction sites, and it is estimated that the city's construction sites will increase by about 3,000 labor personnel per day in March. Data from tianjin bureau of industry and information technology show that as of March 1, there were 4,630 industrial enterprises in tianjin, with a total of 4,052 returning to work, accounting for 87.5% of the total.
At the same time, this year marks the end of the 13th five-year plan and the completion of the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. To achieve the first centenary goal, China's economy needs to double that of 2010. Therefore, under the impact of the epidemic, in order to quickly recover the economy, local governments have focused on infrastructure investment. According to incomplete statistics, in addition to tianjin, Inner Mongolia, xinjiang, hainan, liaoning and qinghai, which have not yet disclosed their overall investment plans, other provinces have announced a total investment of more than 40 trillion yuan, of which major infrastructure projects such as transportation and energy account for a large proportion. "new infrastructure" projects have also become the focus of development this year. However, the current demand has been curbed temporarily due to the impact of the epidemic. Ma li, an analyst, said that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic and the increase in the rate of workers on duty, the steel demand will reach the normal level in April to may, and the steel demand may be released beyond expectations in May to June and even the second half of the year.
In addition, the steel market is also gradually resuming work, according to the steel network survey, building materials market in addition to wuhan, Harbin and northwest remote areas, other areas have different degrees of resumption of work. As of March 6, north China, east China, shandong plate market, except shijiazhuang and taiyuan have not resumed work, other areas have different degrees of resumption of work, tianjin, tangshan, shenyang, tai 'an operating rate more than 80%, and all parts of the resumption of work is still in a further acceleration. With the steel market with a significant increase in the rate of resumption of work, the steel flow rate will gradually accelerate.
Although the demand for steel is gradually released, but the huge inventory still forms a considerable pressure on the steel price, the steel price in the last week after a small rise has fallen. According to the platform, according to the monitoring data on March 9, domestic top ten key cities tertiary rebar (Φ 25 mm) the average price is 3504 yuan/ton, the previous fell 15 yuan/ton. As of March 9, 2020, the last rebar futures contract 2005 shock down, closed at 3439 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, down 0.29%.
At present, the demand has not been fully released, and the inventory pressure is very large, and the output of steel mills has stopped falling and picked up, so the steel price may fall by shock in the short term. In the following, we need to continue to pay attention to the starting speed of demand, the increase of output and inventory and the control of the epidemic.
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